基于VAR模型的江苏省对外贸易、经济增长和碳排放的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Foreign Trade, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions of Jiangsu Province Based on VAR Model

作　　者：马骏[1] 翁清[1] 袁军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《价格月刊》2015年第11期81-85,共5页

基　　金：江苏省社会科学自然基金项目(编号:12EYB008);江苏省博士后基金项目(编号:1202987C);江苏省高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地;河海大学技术创新与经济发展研究所

摘　　要：运用VAR模型,通过变量平稳性检验、协整分析、广义脉冲响应和预测方差分解的方法 ,对江苏省1995年~2013年对外贸易、经济增长与碳排放之间的长期均衡关系及其动态性进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,江苏省碳排放与经济增长、对外贸易之间存在长期协整关系,且该省碳排放对经济增长的影响程度和预测方差贡献率均为最大。相比较而言,碳排放对对外贸易的影响程度较小,并逐渐由促进作用转变为抑制效应。Useing VAR model and the methdos of the variables stationary test cointegration analysis, generalized impulse response and variance decomposition method. The long-term equilibrium relationship and dynamic characteristics between foreign trade, economic growth and carbon emissions in Jiangsu province from 1995 to 2013 are studied. The results of the study show that, there is a long-term co integration relationship between Jiangsu Province carbon emissions, economic growth and foreign trade, and the province carbon emission rate is the biggest influence and variance contribution to economic growth.In comparison, the impact of carbon emissions on foreign trade is small, and gradually transforming from promotion to inhibition effect.

关 键 词：对外贸易 经济增长 碳排放 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]