碳税政策下的班轮船队随机规划及模型价值  

Stochastic programming for liner ship fleet planning and its value under carbon tax policy

作　　者：朱墨[1] 真虹[2] 甘爱平[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学国际航运研究中心,上海200082 [3]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2015年第21期18-24,29,共8页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(No.11BJY11);2013年上海海事大学研究生创新项目(No.2013ycx056)

摘　　要：针对已经存在的集装箱班轮运输企业,研究其在碳税不确定情景下的船队规划问题,以辅助企业作出风险中立决策,避免碳税不确定性可能给企业带来的极端风险。利用二维情景树描述碳税实施时间和税率的未来情景,采用随机规划方法建立考虑此碳税结构的船队规划模型,加入不可预见性约束条件以保证决策步骤与碳税情景结构一致。从行业搜集数据并设计算例,实验结果表明该模型能够求解实际问题,其决策过程能灵活地根据碳税实现情景进行阶段性调整。通过与同样情景下的确定性模型决策结果相比较,发现本随机模型能实现更高的船队营运收益和更低的船队碳排放量。Based on preexisting containership companies, this paper proposes a stochastic fleet planning model with con-sideration of carbon tax scenario structures, aiming at supporting companies to make risk-neutral planning and avoid extreme carbon tax risks. Meanwhile, the carbon tax’implementation time and rates are described through a 2-dimensional scenario tree. Through case experiment, the stochastic fleet planning model is tested to be feasible. Results show that planning decisions can be adjusted step by step according to carbon tax’s realizations. Higher fleet profits and lower carbon emission volume are obtained by the proposed stochastic model, compared to deterministic model under the same case settings.

关 键 词：水路运输 船队规划 随机规划 二氧化碳排放 碳排放税 不确定性 

分 类 号：U692.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F550.6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]