中国省域离婚率的时空格局及趋同演变研究  

Spatial-temporal patterns and convergence evolution of divorce rates at provincial level in China

作　　者：白彩全[1,2,3] 陈昶[3,4] 丁一帆[3,4] 吴启焰[5] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学理学院,南昌330031 [2]南昌大学空间科学与技术研究院,南昌330031 [3]南昌大学计量经济研究会,南昌330031 [4]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031 [5]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210046

出　　处：《测绘科学》2015年第11期48-53,共6页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271176);教育部人文社科基金项目(12YJAZH159)

摘　　要：针对现有离婚率研究时间、空间割裂,整体性探讨不足及实证研究缺乏的问题,该文运用空间自相关、空间马尔可夫链等空间统计方法对中国大陆各省域1979—2012年离婚率数据的时空分布及趋同演变进行了研究,结果发现:除东北、西北地区离婚率一直居高不下之外,中国大陆高离婚率地区逐步向中部延伸并聚集,离婚率存在着较强的空间自相关且空间聚集现象明显;省域离婚率的"两极分化"现象和"俱乐部趋同"现象均经历了由弱到强再减弱的波动变化趋势。Aiming at the problem that the study on divorce rates usually separates time and space,lacks the study view of the whole China,and is short of empirical research,this paper discussed the spatial-temporal patterns and convergence evolution of divorce rates by the methods of ESDA such as spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov chain,and based on the data of divorce rates at provincial level in China from 1979 to 2012.The results showed that on the overall distribution of space,the higher divorce rates gradually transferred to central areas,besides two always high-divorce-rate areas-northeast areas and northwest areas;meanwhile,the divorce rates showed a strong trend of spatial correlation and the similar units clustered in space;the phenomenon of Polarization and Club Convergence of divorce rates all showed a weak-strong-weak trend.

关 键 词：离婚率 空间自相关 空间马尔可夫链 时空格局 趋同演变 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] C922[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]