A possible bias of simulating the post-2000 changing ENSO  

作　　者：Fei Zheng Wen Zhang Jinyi Yu Quanliang Chen 

机构地区：[1]International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology [3]Department of Earth System Science, University of California

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2015年第21期1850-1857,共8页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Program for Support of Top-notch Young Professionals;the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB955202);the Chinese Academy Sciences’Project‘‘Western Pacific Ocean System:Structure,Dynamics and Consequences’’(XDA10010405);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41576019)

摘　　要：Since the late 1990s, a climate shift has occurred over the tropical Pacific that is characterized with a La Nifia-like mean state. Coincident with this climate shift, climate models＇ skills in predicting the El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events in the 2000s are sig- nificantly lower than in the 1980s-1990s, A common bias is likely to exist in contemporary ENSO models that got amplified after the climate shift. In this study, we identify this model bias to be the wind-sea surface temperature coupling processes over the tropical Pacific. Evidence is presented to show that this coupling process experienced an obvious shift around year 2000 in its coupling strength and coupling center. A simple ENSO coupled model is used to demonstrate that the changing properties of the post-2000 ENSO events can be more realistically simulated if this model bias is alleviated.Since the late 1990 s, a climate shift has occurred over the tropical Pacific that is characterized with a La Nin? a-like mean state. Coincident with this climate shift, climate models' skills in predicting the El Nin? o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events in the 2000 s are significantly lower than in the 1980s–1990s. A common bias is likely to exist in contemporary ENSO models that got amplified after the climate shift. In this study, we identify this model bias to be the wind–sea surface temperature coupling processes over the tropical Pacific. Evidence is presented to show that this coupling process experienced an obvious shift around year 2000 in its coupling strength and coupling center. A simple ENSO coupled model is used to demonstrate that the changing properties of the post-2000 ENSO events can be more realistically simulated if this model bias is alleviated.

关 键 词：ENSO Wind-SST coupling - Biascorrection Climate shift 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]