NCAR MM模式对天津市夏季大气臭氧敏感性分析  

Sensitivity analysis of summer ozone by NCAR MM in Tianjin

作　　者：张敏[1] 崔振雷[1] 韩素芹[1] 宋明[1] 李一 赵春生[3] 卢学强 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象局,天津300074 [2]Atmospheric Science,Colorado State University [3]北京大学大气与海洋科学系,北京100871 [4]天津市环境科学保护研究院,天津300191

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2015年第5期71-78,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：天津市科技支撑重点项目(13ZCZDSF02100);天津市气象科研基金项目(2014008)共同资助

摘　　要：NCAR MM模式可较好再现O3体积分数(φO3)的变化,本文利用NCAR MM模式对2009年天津市夏季大气臭氧进行了模拟分析,并利用模式绘制了O3日最大体积分数变化图。结果表明:在当前污染水平下,NOX体积分数(φNOX)每增加10.0%,φO3将降低约5.0%;φNOX每降低10.0%,φO3将升高4.0%;当φNOX为观测值的60.0%时,φO3达最大值。非甲烷有机化合物NMHC体积分数每减少10.0%,φO3将降低4.0%。NMHC各组分中,烯烃对O3生成的贡献最大,占总贡献的53.3%;其次为芳香烃,占总贡献的35.1%;再次为烷烃,占总贡献的9.2%,卤代烃和含氧烃对O3的贡献率仅为2.0%。天津市夏季城区O3处于NMHC控制区,φO3对NMHC更敏感,控制含丙烯和丁烯等烯烃的排放可有效控制天津地区夏季O3的体积分数。A validated model of NCAR Master Mechanism（ MM） can well simulate concentration of ozone（ O3）.Summer O3 was simulated by the NCAR MMin 2009 in Tianjin,and variation of daily maximum volume fraction was illustrated by the model. The results indicate that O3 volume fraction will decrease by 5% if NOXvolume fraction increases by 10% under the current pollution condition,while O3 volume fraction will increase by 4% if NOX volume fraction decreases by 10%. O3 volume fraction reaches the maximum value when NOXvolume fraction is equal to 60% of observed value. O3 volume fraction will decrease by 4% if non-methane hydrocarbons（ NMHC）volume fraction decreases by 10%. Among all components of NMHC,Alkenes contribute to reducing O3 concentration and account for 53. 3% of the total,following aromatics（ 35. 1%） and Alkanes（ 9. 2%）,while halo-hydrocarbons and oxygenates only contribute 2%. Therefore,the concentration of O3 in urban area of Tianjin is controlled by NMHC in summer and the most effective way to reduce concentration of O3 is decreasing or controlling the emission of alkenes such as propylene and butane etc..

关 键 词：臭氧 氮氧化物 非甲烷有机化合物 NCAR MM模式 

分 类 号：P402[天文地球—大气物理学与大气环境]