1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势  

Trends in the frost-free period in China from 1951 to 2012

作　　者：宁晓菊[1] 张丽君[1] 杨群涛 秦耀辰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心/环境与规划学院/黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,开封475004

出　　处：《地理学报》2015年第11期1811-1822,共12页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2012CB955804);国家自然科学基金项目(41171438;41201602);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M570626)~~

摘　　要：准确界定无霜期及初、终霜日的时空变化是减少气候变化对农业生产的危害、有效提升农业适应性的重要内容。根据1951年以来国内824个气象站点日最低气温资料,分析初、终霜日和无霜期在全国的分布特征,采用累积距平和线性倾向估计模拟三者的变化趋势,并对无霜期进行突变检验。结果显示:1中国无霜期随纬度增加或海拔升高而减少,无霜期的年际波动幅度随纬度增加或随海拔降低而减少。2中国80%以上区域呈现初霜日推后、终霜日提前和无霜期延长的趋势,且三者的变化幅度均是北方大于南方、东部大于西部。3中国多数农区无霜期延长是初霜日推后和终霜日提前共同影响,而西南区和长江中下游区部分地区无霜期延长是初霜日的推后幅度大于终霜日的推后幅度或终霜日的提前幅度大于初霜日的提前幅度。4中国过半区域无霜期在1980s和1990s发生突变。突变集中分布在东北区中西部、内蒙及长城沿线区、黄淮海区、青藏区和甘新区;突变时间上,东部农区和西部农区无霜期分别在1980s和1990s突变。This study explores the spatial distribution of the first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period in China through an in-depth analysis of the daily minimum temperature. Accumulative anomaly and linear trend estimation are used to describe the trends in the first frost date, last frost date and the length of the frost-free period. Then, the relationship between the first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period is explored, and the abrupt feature of frost-free period is detected using a Mann-Kendall test. Four major results were obtained. First, the frost-free period decreases with the increase of latitude or altitude, with yearly fluctuation as latitude ascends or altitude descends. Second, over large parts of China （80%）, the frost-flee period is extended by both a later first frost date and an earlier last frost date. Furthermore, the magnitude of the changes in the three indices （the first frost date, last frost date and frost-free period） are higher in the north and east regions, but lower in the south and west. Third, for the majority of agricultural regions, the delayed first frost date together with an earlier last frost date prolongs the frost-free period. However, in some areas of the southwest agricultural region and the middle and lower Yangtze River agricultural region, the last frost date is later, but is more than offset by the later first frost date, or the first frost date is earlier, but is more than offset by the earlier last frost date, so the frost-flee period is still be prolonged. Fourth, the mutation of the frost-free period was significant in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and Great Wall, Huang-Huai-Hai, Qinghai-Tibet and Gansu-Xinjiang agricultural regions, which constitute half of China. With respect to timing, the mutation of the frost-free period occurred primarily in the eastern monsoon region in the 1980s and in the western non-monsoon region in the 1990s. Overall, these changes in the three indices （first and last frost date, and frost-free per

关 键 词：无霜期 初霜日 终霜日 变化趋势 空间分布 农区 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] S425[农业科学—农业基础科学]