医药供应链中牛鞭效应的研究:基于测量模型和企业实证分析  

Studying on the bullwhip effect in pharmaceutical supply chain based on the measurement model and empirical analysis

作　　者：李姣[1] 李亦兵[1] 侯艳红[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国药科大学国际医药商学院,江苏南京211198 [2]中国药科大学国家药物政策与医药产业经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国卫生事业管理》2015年第11期846-849,共4页Chinese Health Service Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"医药供应链信息协同机制的构建及优化仿真研究"(编号:71103199);中国药科大学医药产业发展研究中心社科基金重点项目(编号:CPUSJ1101)

摘　　要：目的:证明医药供应链中存在牛鞭效应,分析其形成原因并提出有效地弱化医药供应链中牛鞭效应的可行性建议。方法:基于供应链管理理论,建立一条包括药品生产企业和零售企业的二级医药供应链以及牛鞭效应测量模型,全面分析零售企业发给生产企业的订单变化与其预测的市场需求变化之间的关系。结果与结论:牛鞭效应测量模型表明,医药供应链中存在牛鞭效应。医药供应链的结构特点,企业的相关决策以及供应链中不同企业缺乏协调是其形成的主要原因。通过简化医药供应链结构、加强企业间的合作以及建立第三方物流运送中心可以有效弱化医药供应链中的牛鞭效应,并进一步提高医药供应链效率。Objective To prove the bullwhip effect in pharmaceutical supply chain,analyze its causes,and put forward suggestions for weakening the bullwhip effect. Methods Based on supply chain management theory, a secondary pharmaceutical supply chain including drug manufacturers and retail business and bullwhip effect measurement model were established to analyze the relationship between the orders from retail enterprises to drug manufacturers and its forecast of market demand. Results and Conclusion The results showed that there had bullwhip effect in the pharmaceutical supply chain. The main reasons for its formation were the structural characteristics of pharmaceutical supply chain, related decision-making and lack of coordination among different enterprises. Therefore, bullwhip effect in the pharmaceutical supply chain can be effectively weakened by simplifying the structure of the pharmaceutical supply chain, strengthening cooperation among enterprises, establishing third-party logistics transport centers, and further improving the efficiency of pharmaceutical supply chains.

关 键 词：牛鞭效应 医药供应链 拓扑结构 

分 类 号：F416.72[经济管理—产业经济] F274