基于MSW参数变异性的填埋场沉降预测和可靠性分析研究  

Study on Settlement Prediction and Reliability Analysis of Landfills Based on Parameter Variations of MSW

作　　者：朱明杰[1] 孙树林[2] 时冬冬[1] 秦鲜玮 谢凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学地球科学与工程学院,南京市210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京市210098

出　　处：《勘察科学技术》2015年第5期5-10,共6页Site Investigation Science and Technology

摘　　要：本研究考虑到城市固体垃圾(MSW)在填埋后,与本身性质相关的某些参数的不确定性会引起不同的沉降过程,例如负荷下压缩量、机械蠕变[1]和生物降解[2]等,基于响应面法[3,4](RSM)并采用最新开发的本构模型得到回归方程,来表示MSW的复杂反应,进一步预测填埋场沉降量,在此基础上评估填埋场容量[5]和预测封场计划。对主要压缩量、机械蠕变及生物降解这些模型参数使用可靠度分析框架以评估其对MSW沉降的影响,并通过灵敏度分析计算不同参数对MSW沉降的影响。This research considers that after the municipal solid waste（ MSW） is burried,the uncertainties of some parameters associated with their own properties can cause different settlement processes,such as the amount of compression under loading,mechanical creep[1],biodegradation[2]and so on. Based on the response surface method[3,4]（ RSM） and using the newly developed constitutive model,the regression equation is obtained. The regression equation is used to express the complex reaction of MSW,and forecast the landfill settlement further. Based on this the landfill capacity is evaluated[5],and the landfill closure plan is forecasted. The reliability analysis framework is used to the main amount of compression,mechanical creep and biodegradation to evaluate the effect to MSW settlement. And through the sensitivity to analyse and calculate the effect to MSW settlement by different parameters.

关 键 词：垃圾填埋场 参数 沉降量 可靠性 响应面法 

分 类 号：X705[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学]