我国随机事故发生时间的机场应急物资储备——基于单个应急准备阶段的医疗物资应急库存决策  

Research on Inventory Model of Airport Emergency Supplies with Random Occurrence Time——Based on a Single Emergency Preparedness Phase for Medical Supplies

作　　者：潘伟[1] 郭影[1] 刘汕[1] 廖书杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072 [2]华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院妇产科,武汉430030

出　　处：《管理评论》2015年第10期195-203,共9页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学联合基金项目(U1333115);国家自然科学面上基金项目(71373188;71471141;81372804);国家自然科学青年基金项目(30901586;71101060);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71231007;91224001);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划(90924024);2013年华中科技大学同济医学院第二临床学院教学研究基金项目;中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目(2012QNl88);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2011CDB191)

摘　　要：机场是民航事故的高发区,机场的医疗应急物资及装备具有重要的战略意义。针对生命周期较短且要求质量高的医疗应急物资及装备,本文建立了应急准备阶段单个事故发生的应急物资储备决策模型。模型考虑了事故发生时间和物资需求的不确定性,包括了风险中性和风险规避准则下的随机事故发生时间决策和确定事故发生时间决策,得出应急物资最优库存水平不仅与物资保质期有关,还与随机变量的分布有关;事故发生时间的不确定性对不同风险准则下的最优决策是不同的;利用概率密度函数再次验证了风险规避准则下的决策是平衡风险和费用损失的结果。High incidence of civil aviation accident near the airport highlights the importance of the medical emergency supplies and equipments stored in airports. The medical emergency supplies and equipments always have short life cycle and require high quality. This paper establishes an inventory model of medical supplies and equipments in the emergency preparation phase. The model takes the uncertainty of demand and aviation accident occurrence time into account, and deduces relationships between risk neutral and risk-averse attitudes with the stochastic occurrence time and determinate occurrence time. It concludes that the optimal inventory level of medical supplies is not only related to the shelf life, but also related to the distribution of random demand and occurrence time ; it also concludes that the effect of stochastic occurrence time on the optimal decision is different between different risk criterions. By using the probability density function, this paper verifies that decision under the rule of risk aversion is the result of balance between risks and costs.

关 键 词：应急物资 随机发生 应急准备 风险规避 

分 类 号：R85[医药卫生—航空、航天与航海医学]