“一带一路”建设与人民币国际化  

The Construction of "One Belt and One Road" and the Internationalization of RMB

作　　者：林乐芬[1] 王少楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2015年第11期72-90,158,共19页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：人民币国际化就是人民币能够跨越国界,在境外流通,成为国际上普遍认可的计价、结算及储备货币的过程。"一带一路"建设在活跃欧亚大陆贸易活动的同时,必将活跃货币流动,在贸易环节使用人民币,商品的流通必然伴随人民币的流出,从而增加人民币的境外储备。同时境外人民币可以通过对国内进行人民币投资以及购买人民币债券等方式流回国内,从而形成人民币的国际循环流动,这种流动速度将随着跨境贸易和金融交易的活跃逐渐加快。这一过程中,人民币的计价结算与投资功能将逐步被加强,促使人民币国际化程度不断加深。因此,经济规模、对外直接投资、贸易规模、经济自由度等因素显著影响货币国际化水平。同时,人民币利用"一带一路"建设平台,通过扩大对外投资、活跃欧亚贸易等途径也将显著提高其国际化水平。因此,作者结合"一带一路"建设以及利用系统GMM模型实证研究结果,提出"对外投资与贸易→经济互动效应→资本项目有序开放→人民币国际化"实现路径的政策建议。RMB internationalization is a process that RMB can cross borders,circulate outside,and become a kind of generally accepted currency which can be used in pricing,settlement and reserve in the world. 'One Belt and One Road' can make Eurasia trade and currency flow more active.While using RMB in trade activities,the circulation of commodities accompanied with the outflow of the RMB can make the foreign reserves of RMB increase.At the same time,currency can flow back by investing in China and buying bonds issued in RMB.All these activities can form an international circulation of RMB.And with the cross-border trade and financial transactions becoming more frequent,the speed of circulation gets faster.In this progress,RMB's settlement and investment functions will be gradually strengthened,which promotes its internationalization.Therefore,economic scale,foreign direct investment(OFDI),trade scale,economic freedom and other factors significandy affect the level of currency internationalization.Through 'One Belt and One Road',the level of RMB internationalization can be improved by expanding the scale of foreign investment and activating Eurasian trade.Finally,combined with the research result of 'One Belt and One Road',the paper gives a new way to improve the internationalization of RMB;OFDI and Trading→Interactive Effects of Economic→Capital Account Deregulation→RMB internationalization.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 对外直接投资 对外贸易 经济互动效应 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F832.6