基础设施建设对人口城市化水平的影响  

Influence on urbanization level by infrastructure construction

作　　者：张卫东[1] 石大千[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2015年第11期31-37,共7页Urban Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA790210)

摘　　要：通过构建面板向量自回归模型,利用面板数据,运用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解技术,分析了基础设施对人口向城市集聚的影响以及二者之间的动态关系。结果显示:第一,基础设施与人口城市化之间存在单向因果关系,基础设施建设促进了人口城市化水平的提高,但作用偏小;第二,从分类来看,社会服务类基础设施对人口城市化率提升的作用最大,文教体卫类其次,交通运输邮电通讯仓储类再次,水电煤的供应和生产类的作用最小;第三,基础设施与人口城市化之间存在非线性关系,表现出倒"U"型结构,具有门槛效应,这表明基础设施投资不是越多越好,保持适度规模才能最大限度地促进人口向城市集聚。By building PVAR model, using provincial panel data and using Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition technique, this essay analyzes the impact of infrastructure on urbanization as well as the dynamic relationship between them. The results show that： Firstly, there is a one -way causal relationship between infrastructure and urbanization. The infrastructure promotes the population urbanization , but the effect is small; Secondly, the role of infrastructure in each size classification is that service infrastructure is the largest; cultural, educational, physical culture and health infrastructure secondly ; transportation, post, communications and storage thirdly; water, electricity supply and production forthly; Thirdly, there is a nonlinear relationship between infrastructure and urbanization, showing the inverted ＂U＇＇ shaped structure, with the threshold effect. It suggests that in order to maximize the promotion of infrastructure to population urbanization, the infrastructure investment must maintain an appropriate scale.

关 键 词：基础设施 人口城市化 门槛效应 面板向量自回归 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]