基于系统动力学的飞行安全绩效研究  

Research on flight safety performance based on system dynamics

作　　者：闵桂龙[1] 端木京顺[1] 高建国[1] 薛明浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与安全工程学院,陕西西安710043

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第1期46-52,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(61374145)

摘　　要：为深化飞行安全管理,需要研究组织因素之间的相互关系以及组织因素对飞行安全绩效的影响机理。从组织因素、航空飞行系统和飞行安全绩效3方面,建立航空飞行系统安全绩效模型。构建组织因素对飞行安全绩效影响的因果关系图。应用系统动力学(SD)建模仿真软件Vensim PLE,建立组织因素影响飞行安全绩效的SD模型。对行动准备时间变化时和安全绩效各维度目标值变化时的飞行安全绩效进行仿真分析。研究结果表明,航空安全管理过程中,缩短改善系统安全形势的行动准备时间,并优化飞行安全绩效各维度的目标值组合,能使飞行安全绩效最大化。It is held by the authors that in order to deepen flight safety management,the relationship between different organizational factors and the mechanism of these organizational factors affecting flight safety performance should be researched. Firstly,organizational factors,aviation flight system and flight safety performance were analyzed to build a safety performance model of aviation flight system. Then,a causal loop diagram model for organizational factors affecting flight safety performance was built. A SD model was established by SD modeling software Vensim PLE. Finally,the flight safety performance under two circumstances of action preparation time changing and target values of flight safety performance dimensionalities changing was simulated. The simulation results show that shortening the action preparation time of safety situation improvement in aviation safety management and optimizing the combination of target values of flight safety performance dimensionalities can maximize the flight safety performance.

关 键 词：飞行安全绩效 航空飞行系统 组织因素 系统动力学(SD) 复杂社会技术系统 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]