温江区早银桂初花期预测  

The Forecast on the First Flowering Stage of Osmanthus fragrans 'Zaoyin' in Wenjiang District

作　　者：荣韧 

机构地区：[1]成都农业气象试验站,成都温江611135 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第31期146-149,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用温江区1970 ～ 2014年气象观测资料和成都农业气象试验站2004 ～ 2014年早银桂开花期物候观测资料,采用统计学方法,得出了温江区早银桂初花期的预报指标及判据;并利用逐步回归的方法统计分析2004 ～2014年1～8月各旬、月的气象因子与初花期的关系,建立了温江区早银桂初花期预测模型.结果表明,初花期基本预报指标为①23.0℃≤10 d滑动日平均气温＜25.0℃,同时21.0℃≤10 d日平均最低气温≤22.0℃,若同10 d内累计降水量≥53.0mm或累计雨日≥6 d或日平均相对湿度≥81％;②10 d滑动日平均气温＜ 23.0℃,且同-10 d内日平均最低气温＜21.0℃.初花期预报判据为当10 d滑动日平均气温≥25.0℃,或同时段内10 d日平均最低气温≥22.0℃时,不会初花;当满足任一基本预报指标时,则该日为预报日,预测3～12 d达到初花期,否则不会初花.初花期预测模型为Y=33.018-3.239X1＋ 1.681X2-1.986X3,表明影响初花期的主要气象因子是1月下旬平均最低气温,其次为2月下旬平均最高气温、5月下旬雨日.利用该模型对初花期回测,并预测2014、2015年初花期,误差范围在0～5d,表明预测模型准确率较高,能用于初花期预测.According to the meteorological data from 1970 to 2014 and the blossom phenological data of Osmanthus fragrans‘ Zaoyin＇ from 2004 to 2014 in Wenjiang district, using statistical method, prediction index and criterion of the first flowering stage in Wenjiang district was obtained. And using the method of stepwise regression, the relationship between flowering and average temperature, humidity, sunshine time number, cumulative precipitation and rainy days every ten days and monthly from January to August in 2004 to 2014 was analyzed. A forecas- ting model was established about the first flowering stage of Osmanthus fragrans＇ Zaoyin＇ in Wenjiang District. The main conclusions are as fol- lows ： forecast index of the first flowering stage ： Index 1 ： meet the conditions, 23.0 ℃ ≤ sliding average temperature in 10 d 〈 25.0 ℃, and 21.0 ℃ average minimum temperature in 10 d ≤22.0 ℃, in the same 10 d, cumulative precipitation ≥53.0 ram, or rainy days ≥6 d, or average humidity 〉181%. Index 2 ： sliding average temperature in 10 d 〈 23.0 ℃, and in the same 10 d, average minimum temperature in 10 d 〈 21.0 ℃. Prediction criterion of the first flowering stage： sliding average temperature in 10 d≥25.0 ℃, or in the same 10 d, average minimum temperature in 10 d ≥22.0 ℃, then not flowering, Meet the forecast index of any initial flowering stage, take the day as the forecast day, Prediction is at flowering period after 3 - 12 d. Otherwise it will not bloom. Forecast model of the first flowering stage： Y = 33. 018 - 3. 239X1 ＋ 1. 681X2 - 1. 986X3. It indicates that main meteorological factors of affecting flowering is average minimum temperature in late Jan- uary and average maximum temperature in late February, rainy days in late May are secondary. By using the model, predict the first flowering period in 2014, 2015, it has the elTor range from 0 to 5 d. The results show that accuracy of forecast model is higher and it can be used for prediction of early flowering period.

关 键 词：早银桂 初花期 预报指标 预报判据 预测模型 

分 类 号：S162.55[农业科学—农业气象学]