中国对外贸易失衡的影响因素——基于贸易增加值(TiVA)测算数据的实证分析  

THE DETERMINANTS OF CHINA'S TRADE BALANCE——An Empirical Study Using the International Input-Output Based Measure of“TiVA”

作　　者：马述忠[1] 张洪胜[1] Meng Bo 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,邮政编码310027 [2]日本亚洲经济研究所(IDE-JETRO)

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2015年第11期97-112,共16页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET-12-0496);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJA790038)的资助;国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473217)

摘　　要：中国持续对外贸易顺差引起了学者们的广泛关注。然而现有文献大都基于传统贸易统计方法,没有考虑全球价值链背景下中间品多次跨越国界的重复计算问题,无法反映中国真实的贸易顺差水平。本文基于WIOD数据库1995—2011年的数据,采用投入产出领域的贸易增加值(TiVA)方法,测算出中国与38个贸易伙伴之间的增加值贸易顺差,并对其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,中国加入WTO之前人民币汇率升值对贸易顺差的影响较小而且不显著,而加入WTO之后,人民币汇率升值可以有效降低中国的贸易顺差。在华FDI总额对贸易顺差的影响呈现出相似的特点,即加入WTO之前,总体FDI不显著,加入之后影响显著。FDI来源地区分析显示,美国和亚洲四小龙在中国内地FDI增加可以显著提升中国内地的贸易顺差,而日本和德国在华FDI则会降低中国内地的贸易顺差。There has been great political and economic attention paid to the long term trade imbalance in China, and particularly to the bilateral trade deficit with the U.S. In this context, identifying the deter minants of the China＇s trade balance has been a key issue for policymakers on both sides. However, in most existing studies, the nature and significance of international fragmentation production in the determi nation of bilateral trade balance has not been considered explicitly. The mainly reason is that the conven tional gross-trade based measure of bi^a~eral trade balance used in these works can cause a crucial ＂double＂ counting problem when intermediate inputs cross multiple borders. In this paper, using the international input-output based measure of ＂trade in value-added＂, which can remove the double counting when estima ring sources and destination of value in bilateral trade, we re-identify the determinants of the U. S. -China trade balance. Our results show that the macroeconomic forces and foreign direct investment （FDI） in Chi- na are mostly responsible for China＇s trade surplus in the short and long run, while the official exchange rate play a smaller role in the long run. As a policy implication, China should keep RMB stable at least in the short run and put more efforts on industry restructuring in the long run.

关 键 词：贸易顺差 增加值贸易 全球价值链 人民币汇率 外商直接投资 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]