中国能源进口政策分析:基于CGE视角  

Policy analysis of China's energy imports:Based on CGE perspective

作　　者：魏文婉[1] 张顺明[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院,武汉430062 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第11期2755-2772,共18页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71273271;71473071);中国人民大学重大基础研究计划(14XNL001);教育部人文社会科学基金(11YJC90133)

摘　　要：30多年来,中国经济高速增长,能源净进口急剧增加,能源原材料进口关税税率持续下调.为了研究中国能源进口政策,本文建立一般经济均衡模型进行深入细致分析.我们利用2010年国家统计数据,设定2010年为基准均衡,考察能源关税税率政策和能源净进口政策,调整能源关税税率或者调整能源净进口量对各产业生产产出、劳动力投入、资本投入、能源投入、总收入、社会福利等经济指标产生深远的影响甚至影响到各产业之间结构性调整.适当降低能源关税税率或者适当提高能源净进口一方面会引起国内第一产业和第二产业的劳动力投入、资本投入和能源投入(进而生产产出)向第三产业发生转移,促进第三产业的发展,有利于中国经济产业结构的调整;另一方面对收窄中国贸易顺差影响显著.最后我们利用CES形式的生产函数和效用函数进行敏感性分析,表明结果是稳健的.The development of three decades witnessed the rapid growth of China＇s economy~ and the dramatic increase of net energy imports and the continuing decline of import tariff rate for energy. This paper establishes a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model and employs the 2010 national statistical data to make a deep analysis on policies for energy imports. By setting 2010 scenario as the benchmark equilibrium, we consider the adjustment of energy policies on import tariff rate or net trade, and examine its impact on a series of economic indicators, such as production, total income, and social welfare. Our results show that if the current tariff rate is moderately reduced and net energy imports appropriately increase, it may contribute to the shift of the capital, labor and energy input （and hence output） from the primary and secondary sector into the tertiary sector, thus to promote the development of the tertiary sector, which is beneficial to China＇s economic development and industrial structure transformation. In addition, the adjustment has a significant influence on narrowing the value of trade imbalance for goods in China. Finally, it shows the robustness of the conclusion when sensitivity analysis on the CES production and utility functions is performed.

关 键 词：能源关税税率 能源净进口量 CGE 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：H25[语言文字—少数民族语言] H21