新常态下中国经济增长动力切换研究——基于区域差异视角分析  

The Power Switch of Chinese Economic Growth under the New Normal——Based on the Perspective Analysis of Regional Difference

作　　者：杨子荣[1] 代军勋[1] 葛伟[1] 陶铸[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2015年第6期53-60,124,共8页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"货币政策传导的银行资本渠道研究"(项目编号:71073113);国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国经济新常态下的货币政策设计研究"(项目编号15AJL003)的资助

摘　　要：随着人口红利的消失、资源和环境压力的加大、生成要素成本的上升以及＂后发优势＂的减弱,中国经济呈现出新的特征。本研究从增速、结构和动力三个维度出发,发现中国经济虽然已进入新常态,但经济特征仍不稳定,且各经济区域表现出明显的差异。因此,为厘清新常态下中国各区域经济增长的动力切换问题,本研究利用中国275个市级数据,构建空间杜宾模型,对2012~2013年中国东、中、西三大经济区域经济增长的驱动要素进行实证模拟,结果发现固定资产投资和政府财政支出仍是东部地区经济增长的重要动力来源,固定资产投资、政府财政支出和劳动力则是中部地区经济增长的重要支撑点,而固定资产投资和出口对西部地区经济增长的推动作用十分明显。这意味着,中国在寻找和培育新的经济增长点的同时,还应充分挖掘旧有的经济增长动力,才能保证新旧动力的正常切换。With demographic dividend disappearing,the pressure of resources and environment increasing,the cost of production factors rising and 'late-moving advantage'weakening,Chinese economy has shown new features. Starting from the three dimensions of growth,structure and power,this paper finds that China has already entered the new normal,but the economic characteristics are still unstable and the difference among economic regions is significant. Therefore,in order to clarify the power switch of Chinese regional economic growth under new normal,this paper builds SDM model to empirically simulate the driving factors of Chinese economic growth in three economic regions including the east,middle and west from 2012 to 2013 by using 275 urban-level data. The results find that fixed asset investment and governmental fiscal expenditure are the important power sources of the economic growth in the eastern area; meanwhile,fixed asset investment,governmental expenditure and labor are the strong points of the economic growth in the middle area; in addition,fixed asset investment and exports are clearly driving the economic growth in the western area. This means that China should fully tap the old economic growth powers while seeking and nurturing new economic growth points so as to ensure the smooth transition between new and old powers.

关 键 词：新常态 经济增长 区域差异 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]