异质性区域服务贸易协定的贸易效应  

The Trade Effect of Heterogeneous Regional Trade Agreement in Service

作　　者：张皞[1] 张元隆 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学金融与统计学院,上海200241 [2]普华永道中天会计师事务所,上海200021

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第11期41-55,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目(14YJA790081)

摘　　要：基于可获得的OECD双边服务贸易数据,在经典引力模型的基础上,首先观察中美两国区域服务贸易协定贸易效应的差异;之后考虑两个国家的异质性(发达国家/发展中国家、签署时间和数量的差异),扩大数据集合。实证结果发现:发达国家间的RTAS贸易效应随着时间推移显著增强;而发展中国家与发达国家间的RTAS效应则存在明显波动,负面效应随着时间的推移愈加明显。Study on the trade effect of Regional Trade Agreement in Service （RTAS） occurs as a result of the quickly increased signature of RTAS. Based on the bilateral data of international trade in services of OECD and classical gravity model, the paper investigates the differences in the trade effect of RTAS between China and United States, and considers the heterogeneousness of two countries with expanded data. It finds that the time effect differs： namely the trade effect of RTAS among developed countries is strengthened over time, but it is not true between developed countries and developing countries. Finally, prospects and future research directions are put forward.

关 键 词：区域服务贸易协定(RTAS) 贸易效应 引力模型 时间效应 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]