基于GIS技术2013年湖南省细菌性痢疾自相关和趋势面分析  

Spatial autocorrelation and trend surface analysis of bacillary dysentery by geographic information system( GIS) in Hunan Province in 2013

作　　者：查文婷[1] 郑剑[1] 刘意[1] 李俊华[2] 刘富强[2] 梁维君[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学医学院预防医学系,湖南长沙410000 [2]湖南省疾病预防控制中心,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2015年第11期1096-1100,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目(11A068)

摘　　要：目的利用地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)探索2013年湖南省细菌性痢疾的空间分布特征,为确定重点防疫区域提供科学依据。方法收集2013年湖南省细菌性痢疾的相关资料,采用GIS软件制作空间分布地图,并利用自相关和趋势面分析,探索其发病的聚集性和热点区域。结果除临澧县、南岳区外,湖南省121个县(市、区)在2013年均有细菌性痢疾发病;全局自相关表明,细菌性痢疾的发病存在空间聚集性(Moran’I Index=0.40,Z=8.82,P<0.001),局域自相关显示,凤凰县、吉首市、花垣县、泸溪县、麻阳苗族自治县、保靖县、古丈县、辰溪县、鹤城县等9个县(市、区)为高发病率聚集区(均有P<0.05);趋势面分析显示,细菌性痢疾的发病率由西往东逐渐降低,而由南到北,呈"U"形分布。结论 2013年湖南省9个县(市、区)存在细菌性痢疾高发病率聚集,其发病率西区高于东区,南北地区高于中部地区,应以此为基础确定菌痢的重点防疫区域,实施公共卫生资源的优化配置。Objective To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery by geographic infor- mation system（GIS） in Hunan in 2013. Methods Related information about bacillary dysentery were collected. The spa- tial distribution map, spatial autocorrelation and trend surface analysis were used by GIS to explore the aggregation and hot region of bacillar dysentery. Results There were new cases of bacillary dysentery in Hnnan except for Linli and Nanyue in 2013. Global spatial autocorrelation showed that there was a spatial aggregation in the incidence of bacillary dysentery（ Mo- ran＇ I Index = 0.40, Z = 8.82, P 〈 0. 001 ）. Local spatial autocorrelation showed that 9 areas including Fenghuang, Jishou, Luxi, Mayang Miao Autonomous, Baojing, Guzhang, Chenxi and Hecheng were the areas with high incidence （all P 〈 0. 05 ）. Trend surface analysis showed that the overall distribution of bacillary dysentery from the west to the east presented a reducing straight line, and from south to north presented a ＂U＂ shape. Conclnsions There were 9 areas in high inci- dence aggregation of bacillary dysentery in Hunan in 2013. The incidence of bacillary dysentery in the western region was higher than that in the eastern region, while the incidence in south and north region was higher than that in the central re- gion. The key areas for future public health planning and resource allocation should be determined in Hunan Province.

关 键 词：痢疾 地理信息系统 流行病学研究 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学] R181[医药卫生—临床医学]