日本超量化宽松货币政策对中国的影响——基于2008年—2014年的SVAR模型分析  

The Impact of the Spillover Effect of Japan's Super Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China——an SVAR Model analysis based on data from 2008 to 2014

作　　者：李彬[1] 邓美薇 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学日本研究所,辽宁沈阳110136 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《辽宁大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2015年第6期169-176,共8页Journal of Liaoning University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"日本民主党执政后的经济转型研究"(10BGJ010);辽宁大学亚洲研究中心-韩国高等教育财团研究课题"基于互动机理的日本公司外部治理机制研究"(201105)

摘　　要：近年来,日本持续施行量化宽松货币政策,安倍二次组阁后推出了规模空前的超量化宽松货币政策。为测度日本超量化宽松货币政策溢出效应对中国的影响,构建SVAR模型并进行脉冲响应及方差分解分析,结果发现日本超量化宽松货币政策对中国产出具有较明显的负向冲击,在短期挤压了中国货币政策的调控空间。尽管中日贸易受中日政治关系影响较大,日本超量化宽松货币政策对中国产出的溢出效应仍然不断通过贸易与金融渠道进行传导。为尽可能降低日本超量化宽松货币政策对中国经济的负向影响,中国应加强国际短期资本流动监管,继续推进稳健的货币政策与积极的财政政策。Japan has adopted a continuous quantitative easing monetary policy in recent years. Abe＇s Cabinet has conducted the super quantitative easing monetary policy with an unprecedented scale after its second forming. To measure the impact of Japan＇s super quantitative easing monetary policy on China, we built the SVAR model and conducted the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. We find Japan＇s super quantitative easing monetary policy has a significant negative impact on China＇s output,squeezed the regulatory space of China＇s monetary policy in the short run. Even though in view of Sino-Japanese trade is largely influenced by Sino-Japanese political relations, the spillover effect of Japan＇s super quantitative easing monetary policy is conducted through both financial and trade channels. In terms of trade channel conduction, to some extent, Japan has a deeper dependence on China＇s trade is confirmed. In order to reduce the negative impact of Japan＇s super quantitative easing monetary policy on China, China should enhance the regulation of international short-term capital liquidity and continue to promote prudent monetary policy and fiscal policy.

关 键 词：日本经济 超量化宽松货币政策 溢出效应 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F112.7[经济管理—国际贸易]