新公共管理国家税收收入的瓦格纳特性实证检验及启示  

Empirical Study and Enlightenment of the Wagner Features of New Public Management State Tax Revenue

作　　者：郝晓薇[1] 柳华平[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院 [2]四川省国家税务局

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第12期103-112,共10页Finance & Economics

基　　金：西南财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"税收结构变迁国际经验对中国结构性减税的启示"资助(项目编号:JBK130104)

摘　　要：新公共管理运动样本国家税收收入进行瓦格纳特性检验,其实质检测是新公共管理运动以来经济增长对税收增长的影响。在IMF统计框架下,运用E-G两步法协整检验及Granger因果检验技术,通过对澳大利亚、加拿大、法国、英国及美国共五个国家总税收收入及分税种收入的实证检验发现,绝大部分国家的绝大部分指标不具有瓦格纳特性。税收占GDP比例伴随GDP增长而增长的趋势具有阶段性而非永久性,这一阶段性可以称之为财政规模的瓦格纳适应期。参考新公共管理运动国家税收规模的变化规律,中国税制优化的方向可以从不同税种制度优化的角度进行着手。The inspection of the Wagner features of new public management sample tax revenue is conducted to detect the influence of economic growth on tax revenue increase since the new public management movement. In the framework of IMF statistics, the paper uses two - step E - G integration tests and Granger causality test to analyze five countries＇ overall tax revenue and the detailed ones ranging from Australia, Canada, France, the United Kingdom and the United States and finds that most indicators for the vast majority of countries do not match with Wagner features. The trend that as GDP grows, the percentage of tax revenue in GDP grows is periodical and non- permanent, with this stage called Wagner＇s adaptation period of the financial scale. Referring to state tax scale changing tendency of the new public management movement, direction of tax system optimization in China can start from a different point of view.

关 键 词：新公共管理 瓦格纳定律 税收收入 瓦格纳适应期 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]