人工地震目录研究进展  

Progress in research on synthetic earthquake catalogues

作　　者：李红[1,2] 邓志辉[3] 邢成起[2] 严兴[3] 马晓静[4] 姜辉[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]北京市地震局,北京100080 [3]广东省地震局,广州510070 [4]石家庄经济学院,石家庄050031 [5]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2015年第5期1995-2006,共12页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国地震局震情跟踪定向课题(2015020106)资助

摘　　要：基于地震目录的统计分析及由此衍生的地震复发周期与地震预测概率分析一直是地震活动性研究的重要部分,而人类有仪器记录的地震活动历史极其有限,因此采用其他方法建立人工地震目录进而研究地震活动特征与规律具有一定的理论意义.本文系统阐述了弹簧-滑块模型、细胞自动机模型、断层系统地震活动模型、有限元-滑块耦合模型、有限元模型等几种人工地震目录研究的理论模型与方法进展;归纳总结了不同模型在实现地震孕育、发生时不可忽视的关键问题:摩擦本构关系,并详细阐述了摩擦本构关系的进展及其区别;最后对有限元数值模拟人工地震目录研究时存在的问题及需要的进一步改进做了探讨.Statistical analysis based on the earthquake catalogue and earthquake recurrence period and earthquake prediction probability analysis derived from it has always been an important part of the study on seismicity,but the recorded history of seismic activity is extremely limited,therefore it has a certain theoretical significance to use other methods to establish the artificial earthquake catalogue and do research in earthquake activity characteristics. This article elaborated several kinds of theoretical model,such as the spring-slide block model,the cellular automata model,fault system synthetic seismicity model finite element-block coupling model,finite element model and so on,and progress of methods in study of artificial earthquake catalogue;summarized the key problem can＇t be ignored in the realization of seismogenic,occurence with different models：friction constitutive relation,and its progress and differences in detail;Finally,problems in artificial earthquake catalogue research with finite element numerical simulation and further improvements need to do are discussed.

关 键 词：人工地震目录 弹簧-滑块模型 细胞自动机 断层系统地震活动模型 有限元-滑块耦合模型 有限元模型 摩擦本构关系 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]