Inflation Transmission in Greater China  

作　　者：Ming-Hua Liu Dimitris Margaritis Yang Zhang 

机构地区：[1]Associate Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macao, Macao, China. [2]Professor, University of Auckland Business School, Auckland, New Zealand. [3]Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macao, Macao, China.

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2015年第6期79-99,共21页中国与世界经济（英文版）

摘　　要：This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based on data from July 1997 to December 2012 reveal that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between inflation in Chinese Mainland and inflation in both Hong Kong and Macao, the two Special Administrative Regions of China. The degree of inflation pass-through is higher for Macao than for Hong Kong. Moreover, we find no evidence of asymmetries in either Hong Kong and Macao＇s adjustment speeds towards long-run equilibrium or in the short-run pass-through of accelerating or decelerating inflation in the Mainland. Collectively, our results show a close relationship among price dynamics of the three economies and call for a reconsideration of the exchange rate anchor in the Greater China Region.This paper examines inflation dynamics in Greater China. Using an asymmetric error correction model we investigate how inflation in Hong Kong and Macao are related to inflation in Chinese Mainland. Our results based on data from July 1997 to December 2012 reveal that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between inflation in Chinese Mainland and inflation in both Hong Kong and Macao, the two Special Administrative Regions of China. The degree of inflation pass-through is higher for Macao than for Hong Kong. Moreover, we find no evidence of asymmetries in either Hong Kong and Macao＇s adjustment speeds towards long-run equilibrium or in the short-run pass-through of accelerating or decelerating inflation in the Mainland. Collectively, our results show a close relationship among price dynamics of the three economies and call for a reconsideration of the exchange rate anchor in the Greater China Region.

关 键 词：asymmetric adjustment Greater China inflation pass-through 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F127