新疆城镇化、工业化与农牧业现代化相互关系实证及其内在机理分析  

Empirical analysis of the inner relationship and mechanism of urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization in Xinjiang, China

作　　者：王长建[1] 汪菲[2,3] 文斌[4] 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所,广东广州510070 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]黄淮学院经济管理系,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2015年第6期1007-1012,共6页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：广东省科学院青年科学研究基金(qnjj201501);广州地理研究所所长基金创新人才项目(030)

摘　　要：城镇化、工业化与农牧业现代化相互影响,共同促进区域社会经济快速发展。通过构建新疆城镇化、工业化与农牧业现代化综合评价指标体系,并基于1978-2011年的长时间序列数据,利用刻画变量之间动态关系的计量经济模型,系统分析新疆城镇化、工业化与农牧业现代化的内在作用机理。结果表明,改革开放以来新疆的"三化"彼此之间具有长期稳定的动态协整关系。城镇化对农牧业现代化短期内作用不明显,长期内引领作用强化。工业化对农牧业现代化短期内作用显著,长期内带动作用弱化。农牧业现代化对城镇化的推动作用在短期内显著,对工业化的支撑作用长期和短期内都显著。促进新疆城镇化、工业化与农牧业现代化的协调发展,增强绿洲社会经济发展的内生动力,将是新疆社会经济持续快速发展的必然途径。Urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization are the three most important strategies for regional economic development in the 21st century in China. Urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural husbandry modernization also affect each other with the inner logical relationship. This paper conducted an empirical analysis on the inner relationship and mechanism of urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization in Xinjiang from 1978-2011. The comprehensive indices of urbanization level, industrialization level, and agricultural and husbandry modernization level are described by the Entropy Method. The causal relationships among urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization are examined with the co-integration test and Granger causality test. Results show that there exist long-term stable dynamic co-integration relationships among urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization. Urbanization could drive agricultural and husbandry modernization significantly mainly in the long term. Industrialization could drive agricultural and husbandry modernization significantly mainly in the short term with pretty weak impact in the long term. Agricultural and husbandry modernization could promote urbanization mainly in the short term. Agricultural and husbandry modernization played a more important role during the short-term and long-term industrialization. Promoting coordinated development of urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural and husbandry modernization and enhancing endogenous motivation of oasis economic development are critical for sustainable and rapid socio-economic development in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：城镇化 工业化 农牧业现代化 内在机理 新疆 

分 类 号：F303.3[经济管理—产业经济] F291.1