移动平均季节指数法分析及预测医院门诊量和出院人数  

Application of Seasonal Moving Average Index Method in Predicating of Outpatient Visit Number and Discharged Patients Number

作　　者：毛以成[1] 黄利娟[1] 查君敬 梁学柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学附属安庆医院医务科,安庆市246003

出　　处：《中国病案》2015年第11期46-49,共4页Chinese Medical Record

摘　　要：目的应用移动平均指数法对某院的门诊量和出院人数进行分析和预测。方法收集某院2008年-2014年各季度的门诊量和出院人数数据,运用移动平均季节指数法对数据进行分析,并预测2015年医院各季度的门诊量和出院人数。结果该院门诊量和出院人次每年呈增长趋势。对2015年各季度门诊量预测值范围为195133~213539、196450~222753、197757~218118、1187880~220423;2015年各季度出院人数预测值范围为17980~18864、18447~19266、18693~19670、19049~20074。结论移动平均季节指数法计算简单科学,预测效果好,能为医院的卫生资源配置和管理决策提供科学的依据。Objective To make a predication on outpatient visit number and discharged patients number of a hospital with the application of seasonal moving average index method. Methods The data of outpatient visit number and discharged patients number of a hospital from 2008 to 2014 were collected, then conducted seasonal moving average index method to analyze the data and make a predication on outpatient visit number and discharged patients＇ number of each season in 2015. Results The outpatient visit number and discharged number were growing every year. The predictive ranges of hospital outpatient visits of each season in 2015 were 195133 to 213539, 196450 to 222753, 197757 to 218118, 1187880 to 220423, and the inpatients number were 17980 to 18864, 18447 to 19266, 18693 to 19670, 19049 to 20074. Conclusions The seasonal moving average index method is simple and easy to be operated with well prediction results, which could provide scientific evidence for health resources ailocation and hospital management decision making.

关 键 词：季节移动平均指数法 预测 门诊量 出院人数 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]