大型工程项目工期风险的多因素组合分析与评价  

Combinatorial analysis and evaluation on construction duration risk of large projects

作　　者：王学海 乔婧[2] 武菲菲[3] 孙月峰[3] 程铁信[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津市水务工程建设交易管理中心,天津300204 [2]南水北调中线干线工程建设管理局,北京100053 [3]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《中国科技论文》2015年第19期2325-2329,共5页China Sciencepaper

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71101104)

摘　　要：根据各工期风险因素对大型工程项目工期的多重影响,构建了基于改进PERT(计划评审技术)方法的项目工期风险评价模型。以某大型水利工程项目为研究对象,将辨识的各风险因素对各作业持续时间的影响带入评价模型,并进行了单因素分析和多因素组合分析与评价。结果表明,该评价模型可以直观、方便地预测出单因素及多因素组合对项目工期的影响大小,从而帮助项目进度管理人员明确进度控制的重点,减少工期风险对项目造成的损失。For large water projects, their investments are usually huge and construction durations, which can be affected by many risk factors, are long. Therefore, it will be prominent important to analyze the duration risk factors in order to prevent their du ration delay. One large water project was taken as an example, and its main duration risk factors were identified. Then, risk combinatorial analysis and evaluation model were set up and PERT and Monte Carlo simulation was applied to this project to ana- lyze single or multiple risk factors. Some visualized results were given, by which the construction duration risk of the large water project can be analyzed and controlled effectively.

关 键 词：项目管理 工程项目 项目工期 工期风险 风险评价 风险评价模型 计划评审技术 进度控制 

分 类 号：TU722[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]