阿根廷债务危机:起源、趋势与展望  

Debt Crises in Argentina:Origin,Trends and Prospects

作　　者：高庆波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2015年第6期92-105,7,共14页International Economic Review

摘　　要：在中等收入陷阱的讨论中,外债被认为是阿根廷经济难以持续增长的重要原因之一。历史上阿根廷于1982和2001年两次爆发了全方位的债务危机,导致此后数十年经济增长困难。阿根廷债务危机的根源是什么?其存在的问题未来将如何发展?文章认为:在阿根廷经济局势下,由于民众主义的影响,导致经济政策与社会政策长期背离,这种背离又被选举政治进一步放大,使得各方主体做出了符合自身利益的理性选择,但选择的结果对于群体而言是不利的,这是阿根廷长期需要解决的问题。In the discussion of middle income trap,the foreign debt problem has been seen as a major cause of Argentina' s failure to maintain sustainable growth.Argentina encountered two full-blown debt crises in the history — in 1982 and in 2001,leading to slow growth in the following decades.What is the source of the Argentinean crises? How will its problems evolve in the future? This article argues that given Argentina's economic situation and the influence of populism,the country' s economic and social policies have mismatched each other,a problem that has exacerbated by voting politics,thus prompting concerned parties to make choices based on their respective interests.Unfortunately,such a scenario goes against the interests of the public.This is the problem that Argentina needs to solve in the long term.

关 键 词：债务危机 货币局制度 民众主义 公共选择 中等收入陷阱 

分 类 号：F817.83[经济管理—财政学]