人口结构变动对经常账户的影响——基于215个国家和地区数据的经验分析  

The Influence of Demographic Structure Changing on Current Account——An Empirical Study Based on Data from 215 Countries and Regions

作　　者：王有鑫[1] 赵雅婧 

机构地区：[1]中国银行国际金融研究所,北京100818 [2]中国出口信用保险公司博士后科研工作站,北京100033

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2015年第12期31-38,共8页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目<中国企业低价出口之谜:基于企业边际成本加成率的研究>(71203104);国家自然科学基金青年项目<社会关系对民营企业出口行为的影响机制:基于企业间关系与政企关系的研究>(71103153);中国博士后科研基金一等资助项目<劳动力年龄结构与出口比较优势:解构作为渠道的技能>(2015M570217)

摘　　要：利用215 个国家和地区1995～2012 年非平衡面板数据, 研究了人口结构变动对经常账户的影响.结果发现, 人口老龄化和少子化变动趋势对经常账户不利.从供给角度说, 老龄化和少子化变动趋势使一国劳动供给减少, 劳动效率下降, 从而对产出和出口不利; 从需求角度说, 老年人口占比提高, 会增加该国的进口消费, 导致经常账户出现逆差.进一步分组回归发现, 高老龄化国家人口结构变动趋势对经常账户有利, 而低老龄化国家人口结构变动趋势对经常账户不利.此外, 还发现本币贬值、人均收入提高、社会保障制度完善和高科技产品出口有利于改善经常账户, 而外资流入的作用相反.这为分析中国人口结构变动的影响提供了借鉴和启示.The article, by using non-balanced panel data from 215 countries and regions between 1995 and 2012, studied the influence of demographic structure changing on current account The findings indicate that the trend of aging and fewer children is not beneficial to current account. From the perspective of supply, the trend of aging and fewer children diminishes labor supply and decreases labor efficiency, thus do harm to production and export. From the perspective of demand, the increase of senior citizens' proportion in total population would increase the import consumption of a country, thus led to deficit in current account. By further grouping regression, we find that demographic structure changing in highly aging countries is beneficial to current account, while the situation got reversed in countries which aging phenomenon is at a low level. In addition, we also find that the devaluation of domestic currencies, the increasing of per capita income, the perfection of social security and the exporting of high-tech productions are all helpful to improve current account. The inflow of FDI has an opposite effect. These conclusions provide reference and enlightenment to the analysis China's demographic change.

关 键 词：人口结构变动 老龄化 少子化 经常账户 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学] C924.2[社会学—人口学]