中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析  

Spatiotemporal variations and tendency of annual precipitation in the arid Central Asia

作　　者：徐利岗[1,2,3] 杜历 姚海娇[1,2] 王怀博 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]阜康荒漠生态系统国家野外观测研究站,阜康831505 [3]宁夏水利科学研究院,银川750021

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第11期121-127,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家国际科技合作项目(2010DFA92720);博士后基金项目(2013M542416)资助

摘　　要：基于中亚干旱区境内344个气象站点1950-2010年月降水系列,利用轮次分析、游程检验、降水集度(PCI)、Mann-Kendall法及气候趋势系数等方法,分析了研究区降水的丰枯变化规律、不同时间尺度演变特征、未来变化趋势及其梯度的时空分异特征。结果表明:中亚干旱区各地的极大丰水历时均小于极限枯水历时,极限干旱历时为5年,年平均缺水量为35.4mm,占多年平均降水量的11.1%;单独丰水年的概率略高于单独枯水年,大于5年的丰水概率为5.8%,枯水概率6.2%。研究区中部降水年内分配规律稳定、年际变化较小,西部降水年内分配年际变化差异较大,中亚五国降水具有显著的季节性变化(PCI为14-22)。春季降水占全年降水量的37.7%,冬季占全年24.4%;中国西北干旱区年降水月际变化显著(PCI为24-34间)。研究区年降水呈增加趋势(P=0.01的显著性),增幅为3.9mm/10a(P=0.01),境内各地增幅为0.02-5.12 mm/10a。哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦均呈显著增加趋势(P=0.01),增幅分别为2.6 mm/10a、3.1 mm/10a及3.7 mm/10a,中国西北干旱区通过P=0.05显著性检验,增加梯度1.8 mm/10a。Using the run theory,displacement,extremum deviation theory,precipitation intensity（ PCI）,the Mann- Kendall rank correlation method and climatic trend coefficient method,the characteristics of precipitation on wet and low,the multiple- time scale change and variability tendency and gradient were analyzed by the monthly precipitation data of 344 sites in the arid Central Asia during 1950- 2010. Results indicate that the probability of single abundant precipitation year was higher than single short precipitation year,extreme drought duration was 5 years,deficit 35. 4mm,accounting for 11. 1% of the average annual precipitation for years,more than 5 years of wet probability of 5. 8%,low water probability 6. 2%. In center of the study area,precipitation distribution was stability in intra- annual,smaller change for inter- annual. In western area,monthly distribution variation of precipitation was high for inter- annual. Precipitations of five central Asian countries had obvious seasonal change（ PCI = 14- 22）; precipitation in spring accounted for 37. 7% of all year,winter accounted for 24. 4%. The change was very significant for inter- year in northwest China arid areas（ PCI = 24- 34）. Annual precipitation showed increase tendency（ passed P = 0. 01 significant test） and the ratio was 3. 9mm /10 a,whereas the ratio was 0. 02- 5. 12 mm /10 a in other regions. Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan all showed an increasing trend significantly（ P = 0. 01） with 2. 6 mm /10 a,3. 1 mm /10 a and 3. 7 mm /10 a respectively,it was1. 8 mm /10 a in the arid Northwest China（ P = 0. 05）.

关 键 词：中亚干旱区 降水 时空变化 趋势分析 MANN-KENDALL法 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]