蒙特卡洛模拟在天然气管道泄漏事故后果分析中的应用  

Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in Consequence Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Leakage Accidents

作　　者：姜璐[1] 梁伟[1] 张来斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院,北京102249

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2015年第6期109-115,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(51005247)

摘　　要：为解决天然气管道泄漏事故后果分析中场景参数及泄漏源参数的不确定性问题,基于蒙特卡洛模拟及拉丁超立方抽样方法构建了天然气管道泄漏喷射火事故后果评价方法。该方法根据已知不确定参数的概率分布对各参数进行拉丁超立方抽样,并将抽样数据代入天然气管道泄漏模型和喷射火热辐射伤害模型计算死亡半径,通过多次循环计算实现蒙特卡洛模拟,最后得到泄漏处距管道不同距离的事故死亡半径的概率分布。实例研究结果表明:随着泄漏处距管道起点的距离增大,死亡半径分布越来越集中,且逐渐变小;累积频率为95%的死亡半径值可作为管道周围划定无人区的参考。To address the uncertainty of the scene and leakage parameters in consequence analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents,this paper builds a consequence assessment method for iet fire in natural gas leakage accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling （LHS）. This method samples the uncertain parameters by Latin Hypercube Sampling according to their probability distribu- tions, then takes the sample data into the natural gas pipeline leakage model and the jet fire model to calcu- late the accident death radiuses, and finally obtains the probability distribution of accident death radiuses by Monte Carlo simulation through multiple circular computations. The case study results show that the value of death radius is getting centralized and decreasing with the increasing distance between the leak point and the start of the pipeline,and the death radius of 95% cumulative frequency can be used as the ref- erence for the depopulated zone around the pipe.

关 键 词：天然气管道 泄漏事故 后果分析 蒙特卡洛模拟 拉丁超立方抽样 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]