CMIP5模拟的平流层21世纪温度变化趋势  

Stratospheric Temperature Trends in the 21st Century in CMIP5 Simulations

作　　者：杜怡心 胡永云[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系气候与海-气实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第6期989-998,共10页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428606);国家自然科学基金(41025018)资助

摘　　要：21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题,使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果,对2006—2100年间的平流层温度的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,臭氧恢复的增温效应在平流层低层起主导作用,而温室气体增加的冷却效应在平流层高层起主导作用,因此,平流层低层(70 h Pa以下)呈变暖趋势,而平流层中高层呈变冷趋势。通过对包含完整平流层的气候模式(高顶模式)和只包含部分平流层的气候模式(低顶模式)预估的温度趋势的差异进行分析,发现高顶模式预估的变暖趋势大于低顶模式的结果,这意味着模式是否包含完整平流层有可能对预估的平流层和对流层未来气候变化有重要影响。When studying stratospheric climate change in the 21 st century, it is a critically important question that how stratospheric temperatures are changed by the two opposite forcings, which are stratospheric warming due to ozone recovery and stratospheric cooling due to increasing greenhouse gases. To illustrate this, CMIP5 simulations are employed to calculate stratospheric temperature trends over the period of 2006-2100. The results show that the warming effect of stratospheric ozone recovery plays the main role in the lower stratosphere, while the cooling effect of increasing greenhouse gases is more important in middle and upper stratosphere. As a result, the lower stratosphere is dominated by warming trends, whereas the middle and upper stratosphere is dominated by cooling trends. As CMIP5 models are separated into high-top and low-top groups, it is found that high-top models, which have model-top above the stratopause and have more realistic stratospheric physical and dynamic processes, generate stronger warming than low-top models do. It implies that a well-resolved stratosphere likely has a significant effects on simulating temperature trends in the 21 st century both in troposphere and stratosphere.

关 键 词：平流层 气候变化 温室气体 臭氧 典型浓度路径 

分 类 号：P421.32[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]