中国通货膨胀成本的非对称性与货币政策动态调控模式研究  

A Study on the Asymmetry of Inflation Cost and the Dynamic Controlling Patterns of Monetary Policy

作　　者：刘金全[1] 刘达禹[1] 徐宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第12期21-38,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"‘十二五’期间我国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究"(10ZD&006)的资助

摘　　要：本文对我国通货膨胀成本的非对称性以及货币政策的惰性特征进行了检验和识别,发现中央银行具有明显的规避通货紧缩偏好,但其货币政策调控不存在明显的惰性区域。本文采用理性预期框架下的TVP-S-VAR模型测度中央银行在不同宏观背景信息下的利率调控规则。结果发现,中央银行在通货紧缩时期的政策调控力度将显著增强,而就新常态时期内的货币政策调控而言,其更加注重货币政策的持续性,坚持"总量平衡、适度从紧、适时微调、定向着力"的货币政策调控方针,从而为经济增速托底,也给经济结构全面升级和改革留出必要的时间。This article makes a test on the asymmetry of inflation cost and the passive ar- ea of monetary policy, finding that the Central Bank has an obvious preference for avoiding deflation and has no passive area in its monetary policy control. Then, we employ a TVP-S VAR model under the hypothesis of rational expectation to measure the Center Bank＇s inter est rate rule with different macro backgrounds, finding that the Center Bank tends to strengthen its monetary policy control during a deflation and pay more attention to the per- sistence of monetary policy in the“New Normal” period, so that make a palm for economic growth and also set aside necessary time for the whole upgrade of economic structure and the reform.

关 键 词：通货膨胀成本 货币政策福利损失函数 货币政策规则 TVP-S-VAR 模型 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]