陕西胥家村黄土滑坡风险定量分析  

Risk quantitative evaluation for Xujia Village loess landslide, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province

作　　者：张成航[1,2] 王佳运[1,2] 高波[1,2] 冯卫[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国土资源部黄土地质灾害重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [2]中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地质通报》2015年第11期2138-2142,共5页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41302224);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(编号:2012JQ5001);中国地质调查局项目(编号:1212010814027);国家地质找矿专项(编号:12120114025901)

摘　　要：单体滑坡风险定量分析是风险评估的重要途径。为了探索单体滑坡风险定量评估方法,以陕西西安胥家村滑坡为例,在野外调查、室内分析测试和滑坡稳定性计算的基础上,利用可靠度方法,计算一般和强降雨2种工况条件下胥家村滑坡发生的概率;利用定量评价方法,分析各类承灾体在滑坡作用下的易损性;然后利用国际通用的单体滑坡风险计算公式,计算胥家村滑坡财产损失和人员伤亡的总风险值,定量评估滑坡的潜在威胁。研究表明,一般工况下,财产总风险为15.4万元,人员总风险为1.3人;强降雨工况下,胥家村滑坡的失稳概率成倍增加,相应的财产和人员风险也成倍增加,财产的总风险达到95.8万元,人员总风险为8.3人。Quantitative evaluation of the hazard may play an important role in risk evaluation of a landslide. In order to study the quantitative risk assessment technique for a single landslide, the authors chose Xujia Village landslide as a case study, conducted field investigation, laboratory test, and stability calculation, used previous achievements and reliability methods to quantitatively calculate the probability of Xujia Village landslide under the natural and strong rainfall condition. Using the quantitative analysis method, the authors investigated and analyzed all kinds of hazard- bearing bodies, values, and vulnerability in the Xujia Village landslide intensity by way of estimation under the specific landslide intensity of vulnerability. The overall risk of the potential economic loss and death was estimated by using international single landslide risk calculation formula which led to a quantitative expression. Under the general condition, the annual probability of economic lose is $15.4 million, the annual probability of death is 1.3 persons; under the strong rainfall condition, the instability probability of Xujia Village landslide is multiplied, the property risk and life risk are also multiplied,the annual probability of economic lose is $95.8 million, the annual probability of death is 8.3 persons.

关 键 词：黄土滑坡 风险评估 破坏概率 定量分析 易损性 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] P694[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]