缺资料山丘区的洪水模拟与情景分析  

Simulation and Scenario Analysis of Flood in Lack-data Hilly Regions

作　　者：徐韬[1] 高益辉 俞祎波 杨涛[1] 师鹏飞[1] 崔同[1] 郭卫 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第11期173-177,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371051);国家科技支撑计划专题(2013BAC10B01);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2014B34514)

摘　　要：作为缺资料山丘区的典型代表,选择望谟县"2011-06-06"特大山洪进行模拟。地面径流采用Nash地貌单位线,地下径流采用线性水库法。Nash地貌单位线的参数由流域地形地貌特征确定,其中流速由Rodriguez提出的流速公式确定,避免了对水文资料的依赖。模拟结果表明,计算洪峰值比实测值偏小3.0%,可用于缺资料地区的洪水模拟及预报。此外,根据望谟县实测的暴雨资料,在总雨量不变的前提下,假定了3类不同雨型进行情景分析。结果表明,洪水量级和雨型有关;雨型为Ⅰ型(雨峰在前部)、Ⅲ型(雨峰在中部)的洪水量级偏大,故需对短历时和特定雨型强降雨做好预警。As a typical representative of lack-data hilly regions, Wangmo County is selected to simulate its mountain torrents in the square part of the mainstream of Wangmo River. Nash geomorphologie unit hydro-graph is applied to calculate surface runoff while linear reservoir method is used to calculate underground runoff. The parameters of Nash GIUH is determined by the basin＇s geomorphologie characters. The velocity is determined by a formula proposed by Rodriguez-Iturbe to avoid dependence on hydrological data. The calculated value is smaller than measured value by 3.0% whose accuracy is satisfactory. It can be used to simulate and predict the flood in lack-data hilly regions. Meanwhile, considering measured precipitation data in Wangmo County, three scenes are analyzed with different rainfall patterns when total precipitation remains unchanged. The result shows that pattern Ⅰ （initial rainfall peak） and pattern Ⅲ（intermediate rainfall peak） will strengthen the flood. So early warning for strong precipitation with short duration and specific rainfall pattern is needed.

关 键 词：缺资料山丘区 山洪 Nash地貌单位线 望谟县 情景分析 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]