基于区间直觉模糊和证据理论的军机研制风险评估  

Risk assessment of military aircraft development based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzziness and evidence theory

作　　者：罗承昆 陈云翔[1] 李大伟[1] 朱强[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与安全工程学院,陕西西安710051

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第11期1564-1569,共6页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：总装"十二五"国防预先研究资助项目(513300102)

摘　　要：文章针对军机研制过程中不确定性因素多、风险大的问题,根据"证据折扣"思想,提出了一种基于区间直觉模糊和改进D-S证据理论的风险评估方法。首先,构建了军机研制风险评估指标体系,提出了基于指标不确信度的Mass函数构建方法;然后,提出了基于区间直觉模糊熵的指标权重确定方法,将各要素的指标集关于评语集的评估证据进行修正与合成;最后,提出了融合冲突系数和Jousselme距离的证据冲突度计算方法并以此度量要素权重,将各要素关于评语集的评估证据进行修正与合成,确定了风险等级。算例结果验证了方法的可行性和有效性。Aiming at the problems of great uncertainties and considerable risk in the military aircraft development process, and in accordance with the idea of evidence discount, a risk assessment method based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzziness and improved Dempster-Shafer（D-S） evidence theory is propose＆ Firstly, the risk assessment index system of military aircraft development and the Mass function based on the uncertain degrees of different indices are established. Then, an index-weight determination method based on intervalvalued intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is put forward, and the evidence information of the multi-index of factors＇ group towards comment set is modified and integrated. Finally, the calculation method of evidence conflict degree based on conflict coefficient and Jousselrne distance is established and used to compute the factor weight, then the evidence information of all factors towards comment set is modified and integrated and the risk level of military aircraft development is determined. A numerical example is given to verify the feasibility and validity of this method.

关 键 词：风险评估 军机研制 区间直觉模糊 证据理论 

分 类 号：E911[军事]