城镇化推进与居民消费关系的实证:伪城镇化及其破解  

Empirical Study on the Relationship of Urbanization and Consumption:Pseudo——urbanization and the Solution

作　　者：张秀利[1] 祝志勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064 [2]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2015年第6期97-101,共5页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目(2012QNJJQ057);国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJL003);中央高校基本科研业务费重大项目(SWU1309369)

摘　　要：伪城镇化是以经济为导向的生产要素的城镇化而非以人为本的城镇化。从居民消费水平的角度可以考察城镇化的质量并判断城镇化的“真伪”。利用1978～2014年城镇化率和居民平均消费支出的时间序列，通过协整检验、建立误差修正模型及Granger因果检验后发现：居民消费与城镇化在长期中存在均衡关系；居民消费显著提高了城镇化率，但后者并未显著引起前者的提高，故两者是带动与被带动的单一关系而非相互促进的双向关系；且居民消费对城镇化率的作用存在滞后效应。这表明我国当前的城镇化已经呈现出较为明显的伪城镇化特征。为此，应将要素城镇化转变为人本身的城镇化，在推进人口城市化的同时必须兼顾农业部门的发展，减少地方政府的行政干预，并以收入政策为核心扩大农村居民消费。Pseudo-urbanization is factor-oriented urbanization which is government-led and e- conomy-oriented but not people-oriented. The paper considers the quality of urbanization from the perspective of the resident consumption by selecting the data of urbanization rate and average consumption of residents from 1978 to 2014, and using econometric tools of cointegration analy- sis, ECM and Granger causality test, and finds that the urbanization rate has a long-term equilib- rium relationship with resident consumption, but only consumption of residents can bring changes in urbanization rate, not the other way around. Thus there is a one-way but not a bi-directional relationship between the two. And there is also a lagged effect in the resident consumption and the urbanization. So the pseudo-urbanization model should be shifted from focusing on population urbanization only to valuing both population floating and the development of agricultural sector, from treasuring on quantity to quality, and reduce intervention, and moreover, the social security system should be improved and income policy should be adopted to exoand rural consumDtion.

关 键 词：伪城镇化 居民消费 要素城镇化 以人为本 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]