中国面临的短期资本外流:现状、原因、风险与对策  

The Short-term Capital Outflow in China:Situations,Causes,Risks and Strategies

作　　者：张明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2015年第3期17-30,123,共14页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家万人计划首批青年拔尖人才支持计划"中国政府应如何系统地管理短期国际资本流动"的资助

摘　　要：从2014年第2季度至今,中国开始面临短期资本持续外流的新局面。本文从国际收支表数据与银行跨境收付数据这两种视角分析了短期资本外流状况,发现本轮短期资本外流由本国居民与外国居民共同主导,而本国居民又由企业部门而非家庭部门主导。造成本轮短期资本外流的主要因素包括人民币兑美元贬值预期的形成、中美经济增速以及中美利差的收窄、全球投资者风险偏好程度的下降、中国房地产市场的下行以及中国政府资本账户开放进程的加快等。本文的估算表明,未来在不利情景下,中国面临的短期资本流出的规模可能达到5.13万亿美元,显著超过中国外汇储备存量,相当于中国2014年GDP的50%。短期资本外流的加剧可能成为触发中国金融系统性危机的重要因素。为更好地应对短期资本外流风险,中国政府应该更加审慎地开放资本账户、尽快建立健全宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管框架、在保证经济适度增长前提下加快结构调整、加快人民币汇率形成机制改革以避免本币持续高估。Since the second quarter of 2014,China has been in the state of continuous short—term capital outflow.This article makes an analysis on the issue with the data from balance of payments and cross-border payments of banks.It finds that this round of short-term capital outflow is participated by both domestic residents and foreign residents.And among the domestic residents,enterprise sector is more involved than household sector.The main driving factors behind the short-term capital outflow are expectation of RMB depreciation against US dollar,the convergence of difference in economic growth and interest rates between China and the US,decrease of risk preference in global investors,downtum of China's real estate market,and the acceleration of China's capital account liberation.The estimation in the article shows that in worst scenario the scale of China's short-term capital outflow may reach S.13 trillion dollars,which is about the half of China's GDP in 2014,far beyond the volume of China's foreign reserve.The exacerbation of short-term capital outflow can become a trigger for China's systemic risk.To dispose the risk in short-term capital outflow,China need to be more prudential in capital account liberation,to improve her financial regulation framework,and to speed up the adjustment of economic structure and RMB exchange mechanism.

关 键 词：短期资本外流 金融系统性风险 资本账户管制 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]