基于地理探测器的东北地区气温变化影响因素定量分析  

Quantitative Analysis with Geographical Detector on the Influence Factor of Temperature Variation in Northeast China

作　　者：于佳[1] 刘吉平[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2015年第19期4682-4687,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071037);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-12);吉林省科技厅项目(20130101097JC);吉林省教育厅项目(吉教科合字[2013]201号);吉林师范大学研究生创新科研计划项目(2013036)

摘　　要：利用地理探测器,结合Arc GIS技术及线性倾向率方法,对东北地区1960-2011年气温变化情况以及影响因素进行定量分析。研究结果表明,1960-2011年东北地区气温线性倾向率介于0.22~0.64℃/10 a之间,气温呈升高趋势,升温幅度由南向北逐渐增大;影响因子贡献量由大到小为植被类型、地貌类型、湿地率、GDP、土壤类型、人口密度、农田率、气候类型、海拔高度、森林率,自然因子影响气温变化的贡献量大于社会因子;因子之间具有交互作用,主要表现为协同作用和非线性协同作用,社会因子增强了自然因子的贡献量,共同导致气温变化。本研究为更加准确认识气温变化的影响因素及制定有效预防气候变化的相关政策提供科学依据。The temperature variation and its influence factors w ere analyzed quantitatively combined with Arc GIS and linear trend analysis. The results showed that the temperature linear tendency rate ranged from 0.22℃ / 10 a to 0.64℃ / 10 a from 1960 to 2011. The temperature rise gradually increased from south to north in northeast China. The contribution of factors to temperature rise were as following, vegetation type, geomorphic, wetland, GDP, soil, population, farmland, climate, elevation and forest. The contribution of natural factors was higher than that of social factors. There was interaction between factor,mainly fo synergies and nonlinear synergies. The social factors enhanced the contribution of natural factors to the temperature rise, and both social factors and natural factors lead to rising the temperature of northeast China.

关 键 词：地理探测器 气温变化 影响因子 东北地区 贡献量 

分 类 号：P94[天文地球—自然地理学]