突发事件网络舆情演化传播模型研究  

Network Public Opinion Propagation Model in the Emergency

作　　者：陈福集[1] 黄江玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学公共管理学院,福建福州350116

出　　处：《情报科学》2015年第12期8-12,19,共6页Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271056);国家教育部人文社会科学研究项目(10YJAZH006)

摘　　要：本文综合考虑部分未接收到舆情信息的网民在接收信息后并不参与传播和部分接收信息但不传播的网民在舆情衍生话题的影响下变为信息传播者这两种情况,参考传统的传染病传播模型SIR,建立突发事件网络舆情演化传播的SIR模型。然后根据"复旦投毒"事件的相关数据,采用matlab进行模拟仿真,验证模型的有效性。最后通过情景设置,分析探讨突发事件网络舆情演化传播因素对传播规律的影响,进而提出相应的对策建议。并对本文的内容进行简要总结,指出研究的不足之处和今后的研究重点。Considering the case of some internet users are not involved in spreading after receiving the in-formation and some known but refused to spread internet users take part in spreading after they are affect-ed by the derivative information and the traditional infectious disease transmission models SIR, this arti-cle establishes a SIR model of the spread of network public opinion. And then this paper use matlab to nu-merical simulation, and analyze the factors of the spread of such public events. Then this paper puts for-ward some countermeasures to the event for the government to control public opinion. Finally, this papergives a brief summary, and points out the inadequacies in this study and the future research priorities.

关 键 词：突发事件 网络舆情 SIR传播模型 政府对策 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]