二参数Weibull分布在风能资源参数长年代订正中的应用探讨  

APPLICATION OF LONG TERM CORRECTION OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCE PARAMETERS USING TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION

作　　者：谢今范[1] 刘玉英[1] 于莉[1] 胡轶鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气候中心,长春130062

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2015年第11期2830-2836,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201232)

摘　　要：选择代表平原、丘陵和山区的6个气象站分别作为参证站和订正站,采用二参数Weibull分布法和线性回归法进行30 a订正效果检验,结果表明:短期资料进行风电场风能资源评估,误差较大;二参数Weibull分布法适宜不同地形风能资源参数长年代平均订正,年平均风功率密度的订正效果更好;线性回归法适宜于订正站和参证站线性相关性较好的长年代平均订正;使用2 a以上的观测资料,订正效果较1 a资料有所提高。Based on data of six weather stations as reference station and correction station, which were on plain, hill and mountain. To test the effect of long term, two parameter Weibull distribution method and linear regression method were used. The results showed that wind energy resources assessment of wind farm according to short-term observation data would have large error, so it was an appropriate method to correct long term of wind energy resources. It was appropriate to correct long term by two-parameter Weibull distribution method in different terrain, especially to the average wind power density of many years. Linear regression method was suitable for which have a good linear correlation between reference station and correction station, and it was more efficient on correcting wind speed than two-parameter Weibull distribution method. To obtain better results, it would be according to terrain and reference station matter to choose methods in an actual wind energy resources assessment. The corrected effect by using two year data is better than one year.

关 键 词：二参数Weibull分布 线性回归法 风能资源参数 多年平均订正 检验 

分 类 号：P425.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]