模糊综合评价法在梯级库群系统安全评价中的应用  

Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method in Safety Evaluation of Cascade Reservoirs System

作　　者：熊瑶[1] 任青文[2] 田英[2] 杨印[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学力学与材料学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第12期66-69,92,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2013BAB06B01);国家自然科学基金项目(11132003);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ13_0236)

摘　　要：为克服现有大坝安全评价方法尚未考虑上下游工程之间水力联系的缺陷,针对梯级库群系统规模大、系统内各水库工程标准不一、关系复杂、不易确定等特点,将模糊层次分析法(FAHP)与模糊数学理论引入到梯级库群系统安全评价中,建立了梯级库群系统安全层次结构,并确定了不同层次因素的权重和模糊评价矩阵,通过模糊运算得到评价综合结果。工程实例运用结果表明,该方法为梯级库群的设计和安全风险分析提供了新思路。Cascade reservoirs system is characterized by large scale, inconsistent engineering standard and complex internal relation. In order to overcome the shortcomings of existing dam safety evaluation methods which have not considered the hydraulic relationship between cascade reservoirs and take the characteristics of cascade reservoirs system into ac count at the same time, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） and fuzzy mathematics theory were introduced to safety risk evaluation of cascade reservoirs system. In this paper, a hierarchy analysis model of cascade reservoirs was established. Then the comprehensive weight of each layer and the evaluation matrix were calculated. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation result of cascade reservoirs system was obtained by fuzzy calculation. The relevant application case shows that the method can provide a new idea for safety risk analysis and design of cascade reservoirs.

关 键 词：梯级库群 安全评价 模糊层次分析法 模糊数学 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]