基于极值理论的大坝变形监控指标拟定  

Monitoring Index of Dam Deformation Based on Extreme Value Theory

作　　者：聂兵兵 赵二峰[1,2,3] 殷详详 李静[1,2,3] 孟庆奕 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第12期101-104,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51209077;51139001);新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-0628);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120094110005)

摘　　要：为研究极值理论在大坝变形监控指标拟定上的计算方法,先阐述了极值理论中BMM模型和POT模型的计算原理,并利用对数似然函数实现参数估计;然后采用超均值函数图法选取POT模型的阈值,结合大坝失事概率拟定监控指标。工程实例分析表明,极值理论在大坝变形监控指标拟定中有效可行,精度较高。As the research on the method of extreme value theory used in developing the monitoring index of dam de formation, first this paper introduced the calculating principle of extreme value theory in the BMM model and the POT model. Then the logarithm likelihood function was used to estimate the parameter. At the same time, ultra mean func tion graph method was applied to select the threshold of POT model. Finally, combined with the probability of dam failure, monitoring indicators were determined. Analysis of engineering examples verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of extreme value theory in determining the monitoring index of dam deformation as well as its high precision.

关 键 词：大坝 监控指标 极值理论 BMM模型 POT模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]