核电楼层谱参数不确定性影响的评价方法研究  

Evaluation Research on Effects of Uncertain Parameters for Floor Response Spectra of Nuclear Power Plants

作　　者：李建波[1] 李志远[1] 秦帆[1] 林皋[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部工程抗震研究所,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《核动力工程》2015年第6期70-74,共5页Nuclear Power Engineering

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2011ZX06002-10);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51138001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(DUT15TD17)

摘　　要：考虑场地与结构参数不确定性的动力影响,是各国核电抗震规范的共同要求之一。规范中建议了2种参数不确定性的分析方法:一种是对确定性方法获得的楼层谱计算值直接进行不确定性处理;另一种是采用蒙特卡洛方法建立样本空间,对响应结果集进行概率统计分析。这2种方法均体现的是不确定性参数的综合影响,无法甄别其中某类参数的不同影响与贡献程度。为明确不同类别的不确定性参数的具体贡献,基于统计学原理,提出一套核电楼层谱分析中不确定性参数影响评价的综合指标,主要有相关性系数、回归斜率系数和Tornado摆幅等。这些指标可从不同角度,分析结构参数不确定性对楼层反应谱的影响与贡献程度,得到不同参数的敏感性影响排序。Consideration of the dynamic effects of parameter uncertainties of the site soil and structural models is a basic common requirement for various seismic codes of NPPs around in the world. The anti-seismic standards generally provide two methods to analyze such effects. The first method is to directly numerically cope with the calculated floor response spectrum （FRS） results by means of deterministic approaches, and the second method is to analyze the FRS result set on the basis of probability statistics, which establishes the sample space by applying the Monte Carlo method. The influence and contribution of certain parameters cannot be screened in both of the above two methods, which only reflect the overall impact of various parameter uncertainties. On the basis of the statistic theory, a comprehensive index about a set of uncertain parameters impact assessment is presented and recommended in this paper, based on the floor response spectra of NPP analysis results, mainly including the correlation coefficient, regression slope coefficient and Tornado. From different angles, such indicators can be used to analyze the impact and contribution on the FRS for various parameter uncertainties, which finally results in an important sensitivity parameter sort.

关 键 词：楼层反应谱 参数不确定性 结构-地基动力相互作用 核电抗震安全评价 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学] TU352[天文地球—固体地球物理学]