青海省东部农业旱灾风险分析  

Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk in the Eastern Qinghai Province

作　　者：孙晓晓[1] 张鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2015年第11期84-88,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(14110209);西北农林科技大学基本科研创新重点项目(Z109021202);国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD29B01)

摘　　要：基于信息扩散的模糊理论和灰色风险分析理论,研究青海省东部春、夏季不同降水距平的发生概率,并构建青海省东部及各县区的灰色风险率模型,计算农业旱灾风险。结果表明,青海省东部农业区北部和南部旱灾较轻,中部灾情较重。门源、湟中、西宁、贵德、黄南最易发生轻旱,大通、互助、乐都、循化最易发生中旱,尖扎、化隆、民和最易发生重旱,平安、湟源最易发生极旱。互助发生旱灾的总风险率最高,达到0.56,平安、西宁旱灾总风险最低,依次为0.15和0.22。东部农业区整体区域旱灾发生风险从大到小依次为:重旱、中旱、轻旱、极旱。模型模拟结果符合实际。The occurrence of the accumulated precipitation anomaly in spring and summer were calculated by information diffusion and grey system risk rate models.The grey risk model were developed to calculate agriculture drought risk combining the disaster-causing factors,precipitation and drought disaster situation.The results showed that drought disaster in the south and north were much lighter,while it was heavier in the central area.The total drought risk rate was the highest of 0.56 in Huzhu and the lowest of0.15,0.22 in Ping＇an and Xining.The sequence of the drought rates from the largest to the smallest was severe drought,moderate drought,mild drought and extreme drought.The fitted results matched with the measured data.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 灰色-模糊理论 粮食减产率 旱灾等级 风险分析 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]