连云港海域极值波高统计资料年限初探  

Preliminary study on the years of statistic data series of extreme wave heights at Lianyungang sea area

作　　者：曹兵[1] 徐常三[1] 高清清[1] 高鑫鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南通海洋环境监测中心站,江苏南通226002

出　　处：《海洋通报》2015年第5期508-517,共10页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金(2012210)

摘　　要：利用连云港1960-2011年连续51 a长期波浪资料,针对不同资料年限共分41组情况,结合适用本海域的年N大波法（N=8）与三参数Weibull分布函数的最优组合方式,进行设计波高计算与比较分析,得到更优资料年限,以及满足精度要求的最少年限等结论.结果表明：在连云港海域,对于中长期资料年限,19~30 a结果相对稳定可靠,对于长期资料年限, 47 a以上更为合理,结果可信.同时给出计算百年一遇重现期时47 a以上资料较为合理,五十年一遇重现期时19~30 a较为合适,最少也得19~22 a,二十年一遇重现期时至少需要15~18 a.Using the storm peak wave height data collected from Lianyungang sea area from 1960 to 2011, the design wave heights are calculated and comparatively analyzed by forty-one groups of different statistic data series, combined with the best combination method of annual 8-largest wave heights and three parameter Weibull distribution function suitable to this sea area. The better years of statistic data series and minimum years meeting accuracy requirements are got. It is found that the results of 19~30 years are relatively stable and reliable for the medium long term statistic data series, while more than 47 years are more reasonable and reliable for long term statistic data series at Lianyungang sea area. The study also suggests that more than 47 years of statistic data series are reliable to calculate design wave height of 100-year return period. And 19~30 years are suitable to calculate the design wave height of 50-year return period, at least 19~22 years. While 15~18 years are the minimum years to calculate the design wave height of 20-year return period.

关 键 词：连云港海域 设计波高 资料年限 年N大波法 WEIBULL分布 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学] TV139.2[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]