产业结构调整与全要素生产率增长实证分析  

Empirical analysis of industrial restructuring and total factor productivity growth

作　　者：曾国平[1] 彭艳[1] 曹跃群[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第6期77-86,共10页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目"基于资本服务的我国经济全要素生产率时空演变及优化路径研究"(13XJL004);重庆市研究生科研创新项目"资源环境约束下公共资本配置效率研究--以‘一带一路’为视角"(CYB15001)

摘　　要：文章通过编制资本服务物量指数和劳动投入指数,采用1979-2013年的样本序列数据,运用增长核算法、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法实证检验了产业结构调整与全要素生产率(TFP)增长的互动关系。研究发现:产业结构调整所催生的TFP增长过程比较缓慢,存在较长的滞后期,但TFP对产业结构调整的冲击却非常迅速,时效性显著。产业结构调整速度、产业结构调整方向对TFP波动的贡献度约分别为6.67%和2.91%;反之,TFP对产业结构调整速度变动和产业结构调整方向的贡献度分别为1.18%和10.65%。此外,TFP与产业结构调整之间存在双向因果关系的结论也值得重视。By compiling the quantity index of capital services and the index of labor input, we use growth accounting method, impulse response function and variance decomposition to empirically test the interaction between industrial restructuring and total factor productivity growth with the sample of sequence data from 1979 to2013. The results show that the process of TFP growth birthed by industrial restructuring is relatively slow, having a long lag period.While the impact on industrial restructuring by TFP is very rapid, which is timeliness significant.The speed and direction of industrial restructuring approximately contributes 6.67% and 2.91% to TFP volatility;Conversely, the contribution of TFP to industrial restructuring speed and industrial restructuring direction are1.18% and 10.65% approximately. In addition, the conclusion that there is a two-way causal relationship between TFP and industrial restructuring is also worthy of attention.

关 键 词：产业结构调整 全要素生产率 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F264[经济管理—国民经济]