江苏省各城市接待国内旅游人数的时空演化特征分析——基于空间自相关和Hurst指数分析法  

Characteristics of Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Domestic Tourists Number in Jiangsu Province:A Study Based on the Spatial Autocorrelation and Hurst Index Analysis

作　　者：李晓维[1] 唐睿[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工商职业学院旅游管理系,安徽合肥230041 [2]华东师范大学商学院,上海200241

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第6期28-34,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:SOC.SCI.

基　　金：安徽省优秀青年人才基金重点项目(2013SQRL105ZD:<餐饮市场监管体系研究>)

摘　　要：基于空间视角,对江苏省13个地级市的国内客流展开研究后发现,江苏省各城市经历了一个由空间正相关向空间负相关转变的过程,且空间负相关的趋势不断增强,各城市逐渐形成"高低"聚集和"低低"聚集的两极化格局。基于时间角度,利用Hurst指数对各城市14年间的国内客流进行分析,发现苏中地区未来增长趋势最强,苏北地区次之,苏南地区的传统旅游强市增长乏力。最后针对各区域提出了相应对策。This paper studied the change of domestic tourists number among 13 prefecture level cities of Jiangsu Provine. The results show that, in the spatial aspect, data of these cities have experienced a process of transformation from spatial positive correlation to spatial negative correlation, the tendency of spatial negative correlation is becoming obvious, and a polarization pattern of ＂High-Low＂ aggregation and ＂Low-Low＂ aggregation is taking place in these cities. With regard to the temporal aspect, the analysis of the change of domestic tourists number in 14 years in thence cities by the Hurst Index, reveals there is a trend of growth in tourists number in central regions of Jiangsu, that in northern regions takes second place, and that in the traditional powerful tourist cities in southern regions is the worst. Finally, this paper put forward several countermeasures for different regions respectively.

关 键 词：江苏省各城市 接待国内旅游人数 时空演化 空间自相关 HURST指数 

分 类 号：C954[社会学—民族学]