乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法在男男性行为人群基数估计中的比较应用  

Application of multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method in estimating the base number of men who have sex with men

作　　者：尹鹤峰[1] 周建军[1] 袁家麟[1] 汪红卫[1] 吴健[1] 宁镇[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市黄浦区疾病预防控制中心,200023 [2]上海市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《职业与健康》2015年第21期2970-2972,2975,共4页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的估计上海市男男性行为者（MSM）人群规模,探讨更适合上海市MSM规模的基数估计方法。方法采用捕获-标记-再捕获法和乘数法对目标人群进行人群规模的基数估计。通过网络调查,获取上述两种方法的重要参数。用滚雪球的方法招募现场调查对象,并对调查对象进行面对面问卷调查。结果捕获-标记-再捕获法估计出上海市MSM规模的基数为86 883人（95%的可信区间（CI）为36 260~137 506人）;乘数法估计出上海市MSM规模的基数为95 618人。结论乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法在MSM基数估计的运用过程中,均基本满足各自的应用条件,调查结果相近,可信度较高。[Objective]To estimate the size of men who have sex with men（MSM） in Shanghai, explore a better estimation method of MSM base number.[Methods] The base number estimation of target population was conducted by multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method. The important parameters of the two methods were obtained through internet survey.The investigation objects were recruited by the method of snowball and the face-to-face questionnaire survey were conducted.[Results]The base number of MSM estimated by capture-mark-recapture method was 86 883（95%CI： 36 260-137 506）, estimated by multiplier method was 95 618.[Conclusion]The methods of capture-mark-recapture and multiplier in using to estimate the base number of MSM meet their application conditions respectively, the investigation results are similar, and the reliability is higher.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 规模估计 捕获-标记-再捕获法 乘数法 艾滋病 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]