2005—2014年我国梅毒发病率趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction on epidemic situation of syphilis in China from 2005-2014

作　　者：陶长余[1] 章士军[1] 陈郁[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心,226007

出　　处：《职业与健康》2015年第21期3026-3027,3030,共3页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的分析和预测中国梅毒发病率趋势,为制定公共卫生政策提供参考。方法采用线性回归方法分析2005—2014年中国梅毒发病率变化趋势;建立GM(1,1)模型,并对未来3年梅毒发病率进行预测。结果中国梅毒发病率呈快速上升趋势,年度变化百分比(APC)值为13.99%;灰色GM(1,1)模型表达式为xk+1=161.052 1e(0.0964k)-151.324 6,后验差比值为0.28,小误差概率为100%,利用该模型预测未来3年发病率(/10万)分别为38.82、42.75、47.07。结论中国梅毒发病率呈持续上升趋势,须加强健康教育、行为干预等相关措施,遏制上升趋势。[Objective]To analyze and predict the epidemic trend of the syphilis in China, provide the basis for formulating public health policies.[Methods]The linear regression method was used to analyze the tendency in incidence rate of syphilis in China from 2005-2014. The grey model GM（1,1） was applied to forecast the incidence rate of syphilis in the next three years.[Results]The incidence rate of syphilis showed a rapid rising trend, and the annual percent change（APC） was 13.99%. The formula of the GM（1,1） model was xk＋1=161.052 1e（0.0964k）-151.324 6, the posterior error ratio was 0.28, and the small error probability was 100%. Accordingly, the model was applied to predict the incidence rate of syphilis in the next three years, which was 38.82/lakh,42.75/lakh and 47.07/lakh, respectively.[Conclusion]The incidence rate of syphilis shows a continued upward trend in China. It is necessary to strengthen health education and behavior intervention to restrain the upward trend of the incidence rate.

关 键 词：梅毒 发病率 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]