中国附加值进出口额及其驱动因素分析——基于MRIO模型的实证研究  

China's Trade in Value-Added and Its Driving Factors: An Empirical Analysis Based on Multi-Region Input-Output Model

作　　者：葛明[1] 林玲[2] 赵素萍[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]四川外国语大学国际商学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第12期3-14,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(SWU1509516);国家社科基金一般项目(11BJY113);国家社科基金青年项目(14CJY083)的支持

摘　　要：基于最终消费品价值来源分解的视角,利用WIOD数据和MRIO模型,本文从总量、国别、产业等三个视角测算和分析了中国1995-2011年附加值进、出口规模,并应用SDA方法考察了附加值贸易额增长的驱动因素。研究发现:中国附加值进、出口额及顺差额均快速增长;贸易对象以美欧日等发达经济体为主,但新兴经济体所占份额快速提升;进、出口主要集中于知识密集型制造业,以电子及光学设备为代表,而初级产品和资源产品的进口大幅度增长。附加值进口额的增长主要源于中国需求规模的扩大,而出口额的提高则主要归因于世界其他经济体需求规模的扩大、目的地国别需求结构的调整以及中国中间产品国际竞争力的提高等三类因素。From the final demand perspective, this paper estimates and analyz- es China＇s trade in value- added during 1995- 2011 based on the world input- output database and multi- region input- output model from three dimensions （in- cluding total trade, country and industry）, and employs structural decomposition analysis to investigate the driving factors of growth in trade in value- added. It is found that： （1） generally there is a rapid growth in China＇s import, export and surplus in trade in value- added; （2） China＇s main trade partners are the U. S., Europe and Japan, while the partner share of emerging economies is rapidly increasing; （3） China＇s import and export are both concentrated on knowledge- intensive manufactures, especially in electronic and optical devices, while the im- port of primary goods and resource products is on an apparent increase. Results of SDA suggest China＇ s growth of import in trade in value- added mainly stems from the expansion of its domestic demand, while the export growth main- ly results from the demand growth in other economies, their adjustment of de- mand structure, and improvement in the international competitiveness of China＇s intermediate products.

关 键 词：全球生产网络 附加值贸易 MRIO模型 SDA方法 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]