国际恐怖活动的新特征及其发展趋势  

New Features and Developing Trend of International Terrorism

作　　者：刘霞[1] 韩自强[2] 金仕根 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院 [2]上海交通大学公共安全研究中心,上海200030 [2]四川大学-香港理工大学灾后重建与管理学院,四川成都610000 [3]上海市公安局特警总队,上海200125

出　　处：《中国软科学》2015年第11期1-10,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划重点项目“面向非常规突发事件应急管理的风险理论与方法”(91324202)

摘　　要：本文在全球国际恐怖活动时空演化数据的基础上指出,国际恐怖活动已成为全球的现实威胁,也己成为中国的现实威胁,本文分析了这些现实威胁的主要表现,并据实际案例,着重分析了国际恐怖活动近年来所显现的新特征及其发展趋势,提出了中国反恐怖工作策略,指出国际恐怖活动的最新变化是,暴恐分子极端蔑视人类传统社会的常规智慧,企图以非常规手段袭击常规社会秩序,他们的恐怖活动从"独狼式"转向团伙式,所攻击的目标及所产生的伤害和矛盾、冲突和影响都不断地扩大化,新出现的恐怖分子回流母国的现象正在导致包括"伊斯兰国"和基地组织在内的恐怖势力对世界所构成的威胁持续上升,恐怖活动的主体突出地集中于"伊斯兰国""基地"典型恐怖组织,防恐薄弱国家与地区成为国际恐怖活动热点。国际恐怖活动的发展趋势是,恐怖组织越来越多地综合利用各种方式来提升恐怖活动的打击能力,并且越来越善于利用现代高技术为己所用,越来越有意识地进行地缘扩张式的多点勾连恐怖势力,在越来越绝决地采用自杀式袭击手段的同时,谋求获取大规模杀伤性武器。Through the analysis of the Global Terrorism Database（GTD） which is built and maintained by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Response to Terrorism（START） , University of Maryland, this paper points out that global terrorism has become a global threat, and a real threat to China as well. This paper analyzes the new features and trends of global terrorism through actual case studies, and then proposes some anti-terrorism strategy suggestions for China. The new features of global terrorism include ： the fear of violence molecules in extreme contempt conventional human wisdom of traditional society;nonconventional means in an attempt to attack the conventional social order,their terrorist activities from ＂lone wolf＂ to the gang, attacking the target and the harm and contradiction, conflict and influence are constantly expanding, return home new terrorist phenomenon occurred is leading to include ＂Islamic state＂ and A1 Qaeda, terrorist forces to constitute a threat to the world continues to rise, terrorist activities the subjects focused on ＂the Islamic Republic base＂ typical terrorist organization, anti terrorist weak countries and regions become the focus of international terrorist activities. The development trend of the international terrorist activities, terrorist organizations are increasingly using a variety of ways to enhance the ability to combat terrorist activities, and more and more good use of modem high technology used for himself, there is a growing awareness of geopolitical expansion type multi-point collusion terrorist forces. In more and more vast pending the suicide attack means at the same time, seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

关 键 词：国际恐怖活动 威胁 新特征 发展趋势 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]